Monday, November 12, 2007

Big Retail Earnings Report

Starting tomorrow (Tuesday November 13th), some big retail stores report earnings. Home Depot and Walmart report tomorrow at 8:30 AM E.T. In the next few days, we will here from JC Penney, Macy's, TJ Maxx, Kohls etc. The chances that these retailers will report blowout earnings are bleak. This again is going to affect the market negatively. The DOW, NASDAQ and S&P might fall further as a result of the domino effect. Every time I feel that a bottom is forming, I am proved wrong and the market (especially NASDAQ) crashes further.

I learned a very important lesson in these 3 months of trading - always take out some profits. When I bought AAPL at $112 and $125, I should have taken out some profits at $192 or $185. I also bought RIMM at $80, $110 and $115 and never bothered to take out any profits. Not a good idea. It's very important to have an exit strategy. I argue that I saw AAPL as a $250 stock or RIMM as a $180 stock or GOOG as a $1000 stock. Great! But it is still important to take some profits.

Unfortunately, I still don't think that AAPL, GOOG, RIMM or BIDU have found their bottoms. May be the severely negative outlook of the market is affecting my thought process but there is every chance that it will still go lower before it starts sky-rocketing towards new highs. Starting November 01, NASDAQ has lost 9.61%, AAPL has lost 19.05%, RIMM has lost 17.6% and Google has lost 10.6%. It's bad that we still don't see the bottom.

But I am hopeful that we will see the bottom soon and these stocks will do well again. When a company has strong fundamentals, a few bad days do not really matter in the long run. This unpredictable market does call for long term strategies though. Playing it for the very short term can bring unpredictable and undesirable losses.

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